The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy

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As the world contemplates a future under Chinese dominance, Edward Luttwak focuses on China's own future. Known for his strategic insights, Luttwak posits that the world's most populous nation and second-largest economy may be on a precarious path. For nations whose ascent is evident, the universal logic of strategy dictates a choice between military and economic growth. China, however, is pursuing both simultaneously. Its military expansion and assertive foreign policy have already provoked resistance from neighboring countries, including India, Japan, and Vietnam, which collectively surpass China in population and wealth. If Chinese leaders do not temper their ambitions, they risk facing economic restrictions from these emerging coalitions. The challenge lies in balancing economic prosperity with military strength, a dilemma that could be difficult to communicate to the public. Furthermore, reliance on ancient strategic texts like Sun Tzu’s Art of War may hinder progress; while useful in internal conflicts, their tactics have alienated neighboring countries. To mitigate further global hostility, Luttwak suggests that Chinese leaders should adopt a more sustainable approach, prioritizing economic growth while exercising military and diplomatic restraint.