Timothy R. Heath Livres

Through a careful synthesis of current and historical data, the authors analyze several scenarios of systemic U.S.-China conflict under conditions where China approaches global primacy. They draw on academic findings regarding the potential trajectory of international security, China's future warfare strategies, and historical patterns in interstate wars to explore the possibility of a U.S.-China war of power transition. Two scenarios of systemic conflict are developed: the first involves a low-intensity conflict that unfolds globally over many years, while the second escalates into a high-intensity war stemming from the initial conflict. The high-intensity scenario envisions aggressive actions by both nations aimed at crippling each other's war-fighting capabilities, posing a significant risk of escalation to catastrophic levels. Both scenarios are set against a backdrop of a fragmented international landscape, where U.S. and Chinese militaries face immense strain from sustaining their war efforts while also dealing with nontraditional threats and demands for support from allies. Although the analysis focuses on a hypothetical situation of Chinese global primacy, the insights gained could inform contemporary defense planning for potential contingencies.

The book explores the concept of "enabling conditions," demonstrating how favorable political environments can enhance economic development. Through a comparative case study of five single-party authoritarian regimes, it argues that China's current political challenges hinder its potential for achieving a highly productive economy. The analysis emphasizes the critical relationship between political stability and economic progress, offering insights into the implications for China's future economic ambitions.