Nassim Nicholas Taleb est l'auteur de la monumentale collection d'essais, l'Incerto, une exploration de l'opacité, de la chance, de l'incertitude et de la prise de décision dans un monde que nous ne comprenons pas entièrement. Fort de son expérience en tant que preneur de risques et désormais chercheur, Taleb explore les problèmes pratiques de la probabilité et du risque. Son œuvre, présentée comme un essai personnel mêlant éléments autobiographiques, récits et réflexions philosophiques, offre une perspective unique sur les complexités de la vie moderne. Il se concentre sur les systèmes capables de tirer parti du désordre et de l'imprévisibilité.
Quel est le point commun entre l'invention de la roue, Pompei, le krach boursier de 1987, Harry Potter et Internet? Pourquoi ne devrait-on jamais lire un journal ni courir pour attraper un train? Que peuvent nous apprendre les amants de Catherine de Russie sur les probabilites? Pourquoi les previsionnistes sont-ils pratiquement tous des arnaqueurs? Ce livre revele tout des Cygnes Noirs, ces evenements aleatoires, hautement improbables, qui jalonnent notre vie: ils ont un impact enorme, sont presque impossibles a prevoir, et pourtant, a posteriori, nous essayons toujours de leur trouver une explication rationnelle. Dans cet ouvrage eclairant, plein d'esprit d'impertinence et bien souvent prophetique, Taleb nous exhorte a ne pas tenir compte des propos de certains experts , et nous montre comment cesser de tout prevoir ou comment tirer parti de l'incertitude.
New York Times bestselling author Nassim Taleb's landmark Incerto series - Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes - gathered together for the first time, in a beautifully designed box set.
Nassim Taleb's five landmark bestselling books have changed the way millions see the world and think about uncertainty, chance, volatility, and risk. They can be read individually but are also written to complement each other and actually comprise a single work: The Incerto. This boxed set is newly designed and offers readers one of the most significant intellectual projects of our time.
Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile,and The Bed of Procrustes.
Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, many things in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil. In this title, the author shows that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world. Taleb tells us how to live in a world that is unpredictable and chaotic, and how to thrive during moments of disaster.
"The acclaimed author of the influential bestseller The Black Swan, Nicholas Nassim Taleb takes a next big step with a deceptively simple concept: the "antifragile." Like the Greek hydra that grows two heads for each one it loses, people, systems, and institutions that are antifragile not only withstand shocks, they benefit from them. In a modern world dominated by chaos and uncertainty, Antifragile is a revolutionary vision from one of the most subversive and important thinkers of our time
Dynamic Hedging is the definitive source on derivatives risk. It provides a real-world methodology for managing portfolios containing any nonlinear security. It presents risks from the vantage point of the option market maker and arbitrage operator. The only book about derivatives risk written by an experienced trader with theoretical training, it remolds option theory to fit the practitioner's environment. As a larger share of market exposure cannot be properly captured by mathematical models, noted option arbitrageur Nassim Taleb uniquely covers both on-model and off-model derivatives risks. The author discusses, in plain English, vital issues, including: The generalized option, which encompasses all instruments with convex payoff, including a trader's potential bonus. The techniques for trading exotic options, including binary, barrier, multiasset, and Asian options, as well as methods to take into account the wrinkles of actual, non-bellshaped distributions. Market dynamics viewed from the practitioner's vantage point, including liquidity holes, portfolio insurance, squeezes, fat tails, volatility surface, GARCH, curve evolution, static option replication, correlation instability, Pareto-Levy, regime shifts, autocorrelation of price changes, and the severe flaws in the value at risk method. New tools to detect risks, such as higher moment analysis, topography exposure, and nonparametric techniques. The path dependence of all options hedged dynamically Dynamic Hedging is replete with helpful tools, market anecdotes, at-a-glance risk management rules distilling years of market lore, and important definitions. The book contains modules in which the fundamental mathematics of derivatives, such as the Brownian motion, Ito's lemma, the numeraire paradox, the Girsanov change of measure, and the Feynman-Kac solution are presented in intuitive practitioner's language
The phrase "skin in the game" is one we have often heard but have rarely stopped to truly dissect. It is the backbone of risk management, but it's also an astonishingly complex worldview that applies to all aspects of our lives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb pulls on everything from Antaeus the Giant to Hammurabi to Donald Trump to Seneca to the ethics of disagreement to create a tapestry for understanding our world in a brand new way. Among his insights: For social justice, focus on symmetry and risk sharing -- Ethical rules aren't universal -- Minorities, not majorities, run the world -- You can be an intellectual yet still be an idiot -- Beware of complicated solutions (that someone was paid to find) -- True religion is commitment, not just faith
By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses Taleb's view of modern civilization's hubristic side effects--modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery
