Detecting and modeling the changes of land use and land cover for land use planning in Da Nang City, Vietnam

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Da Nang City, situated in Vietnam's South Central Coast, has experienced significant development over the last two decades, emerging as one of the country's five independent municipalities and a Key Economic Zone. The rapid industrialization and urbanization have led to substantial changes in land use and land cover (LULC). Linh Nguyen's study focuses on detecting, quantifying, and characterizing these LULC changes from 1979 to 2009 using multitemporal satellite images, while also examining their effects on landscape structure through spatial metrics. The findings reveal that 37% of the land has changed, with gradual shifts before Da Nang became independent from Quang Nam Province and accelerated changes post-1996, particularly in urban areas, which grew by 86.6% in 13 years. This rapid urbanization is attributed to a strong economic development focus, while agriculture and forests also experienced significant changes, leading to fragmented agricultural patches. In contrast, forestry and urban areas maintained a more uniform landscape configuration. The study simulates future LULC changes from 2009 to 2030 under three scenarios: Development as Usual, Aggressive Development, and Optimal Development, all indicating a continuous urban area increase and a gradual decline in agriculture and shrub areas. These insights offer valuable strategies for land use planning in rapidly urbanizing regions.