Philip E. Tetlock Livres

Everyone would benefit from better foresight, whether in finance, policy-making, or daily planning. However, people often struggle with accurate predictions. A landmark study by Wharton professor Philip Tetlock revealed that even experts' forecasts are only marginally better than chance. Yet, some experts possess genuine foresight, prompting Tetlock to explore the reasons behind this talent and whether it can be taught. In collaboration with Dan Gardner, Tetlock presents a comprehensive examination of prediction, drawing on extensive research and a large-scale forecasting tournament called the Good Judgment Project. This initiative involved thousands of ordinary individuals, including a filmmaker and a retired pipe installer, who successfully forecasted global events, outperforming benchmarks and even intelligence analysts with classified information. These exceptional forecasters, termed 'superforecasters,' demonstrate that effective prediction doesn't rely on advanced technology but on gathering diverse evidence, thinking probabilistically, collaborating, tracking performance, and embracing errors. Through compelling stories of both successful and failed forecasts, along with insights from prominent decision-makers, the authors reveal practical strategies for enhancing our predictive abilities across various domains, making this work a valuable resource for anyone seeking to improve their foresight.

It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they rarely admit it, either. . . . It would be nice if there were fewer partisans on television disguised as analysts and experts. . . . But the best lesson of Tetlock's book may be the one that he seems most reluctant to draw: Think for yourself.--Louis Menand, The New Yorker

The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people--including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer--who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden's compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn't require powerful computers or arcane methods.