It is the somewhat gratifying lesson of Philip Tetlock's new book . . . that
people who make prediction their business--people who appear as experts on
television, get quoted in newspaper articles, advise governments and
businesses, and participate in punditry roundtables--are no better than the
rest of us. When they're wrong, they're rarely held accountable, and they
rarely admit it, either. . . . It would be nice if there were fewer partisans
on television disguised as analysts and experts. . . . But the best lesson of
Tetlock's book may be the one that he seems most reluctant to draw: Think for
yourself.--Louis Menand, The New Yorker
What if we could improve our ability to predict the future? Everything we do involves forecasts about how the future will unfold. Whether buying a new house or changing job, designing a new product or getting married, our decisions are governed by implicit predictions of how things are likely to turn out. The problem is, we're not very good at it. In a landmark, twenty-year study, Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed that the average expert was only slightly better at predicting the future than a layperson using random guesswork. Tetlock's latest project - an unprecedented, government-funded forecasting tournament involving over a million individual predictions - has since shown that there are, however, some people with real, demonstrable foresight. These are ordinary people, from former ballroom dancers to retired computer programmers, who have an extraordinary ability to predict the future with a degree of accuracy 60% greater than average. They are superforecasters. In Superforecasting, Tetlock and his co-author Dan Gardner offer a fascinating insight into what we can learn from this elite group. They show the methods used by these superforecasters which enable them to outperform even professional intelligence analysts with access to classified data. And they offer practical advice on how we can all use these methods for our own benefit - whether in business, in international affairs, or in everyday life.
Эта книга предлагает инновационные идеи от ведущих психологов, нейробиологов и философов, которые радикально увеличивают наше понимание человеческого мышления. Темы, рассматриваемые в книге, могут удивить многих, но в то же время будут непонятны для других. Она содержит термины и концепции, которые могут значительно изменить многие представления о мышлении. Это новое знание решает множество старых загадок и открывает целостный взгляд на все возможности мышления внутри нас.
